Fiscal Survey of States

With data gathered from all 50 state budget offices, this semi-annual report provides a narrative analysis of the fiscal condition of the states and data summaries of state general fund revenues, expenditures, and balances. The spring edition details governors’ proposed budgets; the fall edition details enacted budgets.

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Kathryn White
202-624-5949
kwhite@nasbo.org

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Spring 2025 Fiscal Survey

This edition of the report contains data for states, territories, and the District of Columbia on general fund spending, revenue, ending balances, and rainy day funds for fiscal 2024 (actual), fiscal 2025 (estimated), and fiscal 2026 (recommended). Information on recommended changes to taxes and fees and employee compensation for fiscal 2026 is also included.

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Highlights include:

General Fund Spending

Governors’ budgets for fiscal 2026 call for general fund spending 0.8 percent above estimated levels for fiscal 2025.
24 states are projecting lower general fund spending in recommended budgets for fiscal 2026 compared to fiscal 2025 levels; the median annual growth rate is 0.0 percent.

General Fund Revenue

Revenue projections for fiscal 2026 used in governors’ budgets are 2.8 percent higher than current estimates for fiscal 2025, which would mark a fourth consecutive year of modest revenue growth.
In fiscal 2025, 34 states reported receipts were exceeding original estimates at the time of data collection, while nine states reported revenues were on target and seven states reported coming in below estimates.
Governors’ budgets for fiscal 2026 propose a mix of tax policy changes, with 14 states recommending net increases and 20 states recommending net decreases.

State Balances

Most states are projected to maintain or increase the size of their rainy day fund balances in dollars in fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2026, though the estimated median balance as a percentage of expenditures ticked down in fiscal 2025 due to general fund spending increasing at a faster rate than reserves that year.
Total balances, meanwhile, are expected to continue declining in fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2026 as states spend down prior-year unanticipated surpluses that have accumulated in their general fund ending balances. States spending down a portion of their large balances is to be expected and in line with routine budget practice, with many states directing these surplus funds to one-time investments.