Overview - Fall 2024
Released December 18, 2024
This edition of the report contains data for all 50 states, three territories, and the District of Columbia on general fund spending, revenue, ending balances, and rainy day funds for fiscal 2023 (actual), fiscal 2024 (preliminary actual), and fiscal 2025 (enacted). Information on enacted changes to taxes and fees and employment compensation for fiscal 2025 is also included.
Highlights of the Fall 2024 Fiscal Survey include:
General Fund Spending
- State general fund spending in fiscal 2025 enacted budgets is expected to record a slight annual decline of 0.3 percent, driven in part by less one-time spending compared to the prior year.
- Despite the aggregate decrease in fiscal 2025, 31 states are projecting general fund spending increases based on enacted budgets for fiscal 2025; the median annual growth rate for the 50 states is an increase of 1.9 percent.
General Fund Revenue
- Revenue projections for fiscal 2025 used in states’ enacted budgets are 1.9 percent higher than preliminary actual collections for fiscal 2024, following similarly modest growth in fiscal 2024 and an annual revenue decline in fiscal 2023.
- In fiscal 2024, 39 states reported preliminary actual collections exceeded original estimates, while nine states reported revenues were on target and two states reported being below estimates.
- After two years of widespread, sizeable tax cuts, enacted budgets for fiscal 2025 provide for fewer, more targeted tax changes, with 27 states adopting net tax cuts and 10 states adopting tax increases.
State Balances
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The median rainy day fund balance as a percentage of general fund expenditures has grown every year since the aftermath of the Great Recession in fiscal 2011, and states are expecting to continue this streak, with a median balance projected at 14.4 percent at the end of fiscal 2025.
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Total balances, meanwhile, declined in fiscal 2024 and are expected to do so again in fiscal 2025 as states spend down prior-year unanticipated surpluses that have accumulated in their general fund ending balances. States spending down a portion of their large balances is to be expected and in line with routine budget practice, with many states directing these surplus funds to one-time investments.