On October 27, House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) announced that the across-the-board cuts that would automatically occur if the Joint Select Committee (supercommittee) was unable to approve a federal deficit reduction plan of at least $1.2 trillion would be an unacceptable outcome. Specifically, he noted in reference to the Department of Defense that military accounts “have taken more than their fair share of the hits” this year. His remarks further fuel the speculation that has been building over the past month or so that the supercommittee may fall short of its goal and that Congress may act to undo the automatic cuts. This idea was first given credence when Senator John McCain (R-AZ) publicly stated that if the supercommittee failed to reach a deal to reduce the deficit, he would “be among the first on the floor to nullify that provision” calling for sequestration. Additionally, Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) stated earlier this year that “these triggers are ill designed, they are unfair and they would devastate the Department of Defense.” He also noted that “I will do everything I can between now and then to replace the triggers.”

Also, last week, both Democrats and Republicans on the supercommittee released their first deficit reduction proposals. The Republican plan would cut roughly $2.2 trillion, with $640 billion in revenues from Medicare premium increases and other measures that do not raise taxes. The Democrats’ plan would reduce the deficit by roughly $3 trillion and includes about $575 billion in cuts from health care programs along with raising $1.3 trillion in new revenue from tax increases. The 12 members of the committee are expected to negotiate between the Democratic and Republican plans.

Finally, the supercommittee is, according to recent reports, unlikely to complete a comprehensive overhaul of the tax code by their November 23 deadline. As such, it is more likely that the details of any major tax changes will be completed by House and Senate tax committees. However, members of the supercommittee have not completely ruled out the possibility.

The supercommittee has until November 23 to approve a plan to reduce the deficit over the next decade by at least $1.2 trillion. However, in order to provide the Congressional Budget Office with enough time to score any agreement, such a plan would have to be completed much earlier than November 23. There continues to be major disagreements on revenue changes and entitlement reform, which likely need to be addressed if the committee is to hit the $1.2 trillion saving mark.